In my life I’ve observed people at all different degrees of success. When I think of a person being successful or not, what I’m thinking of is the degree to which they’ve achieved the results they want to achieve, whatever kind of results those may be.
There are a number of factors that lead to a person’s ability to accomplish their goals. There’s one big factor that I think might be more important than most of the others: an accurate mental model of reality.
To paraphrase the example from The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, if I want to navigate around Chicago but I’m looking at a map of Detroit, I’m not going to be able to navigate very effectively.
Same with everything. If I’m trying to build a successful career as a freelance programmer or trying to build an online product business but I have an inaccurate understanding of how the rules of business operate, my success is going to be hindered to the extent that my mental model is inaccurate. (An exception is if I get lucky. Luck requires no understanding.)
There’s a lot of bullshit advice out there. If I uncritically feed all the world’s business advice into my brain, it will be impossible for me to develop an accurate mental map of reality because the body of advice I’ve loaded into my brain won’t be consistent with itself. Somehow I have to figure out what’s true and what’s not true.
This brings me to my next point. There is a such thing as a single truth and a single reality. Two people might have a different opinion on, say, who the most talented Beatle was and there’s no way to say one of them is objectively right or wrong. A lot of people seem to overly apply this same kind of idea to business. “There’s no one single path to success.” “There’s no one right way to do it.” It’s true that there’s no single right way to do many things in business, but some things really do work and other things don’t work. Business isn’t some hocus-pocus field with rules that apply separately from the rules that apply to everything else in the world. There’s one single reality. Our job is to figure out how that single reality works and get on the winning side of that reality.
Everything I’ve said so far has been to lay the groundwork for this: all the reasoning in the world is no match for a little empirical observation.
Some things are simple and small enough that conclusions can be confidently drawn using reason alone. For example, if I hit my toe with a hammer and then notice that my toe hurts, I can safely conclude that hitting my toe with a hammer makes it hurt.
Other things are sufficiently complex that reasoning alone doesn’t work. For example, I once reasoned that if I were to build a hair salon scheduling program that was superior to any existing salon scheduling program (an extraordinarily low bar, at least at the time) then the result would be that people would buy my product. I was WRONG.
What I should have asked was: is there any empirical evidence that this is going to work? Has there ever been a programmer like me who started a business similar to this who had success?
Better yet, I should have zoomed out even further and came at the matter from a more productive direction: for programmers like me (i.e. a bootstrapper with no VC, very little time or money, and a family to support) who wanted to start a successful product business, what did they do? I would have discovered that they did not try to start a SaaS business serving a customer they knew nothing about in an industry where they had no connections and in an industry that hates computers and has very little money and spends extremely little time online.
So, my advice to people out there trying to figure out what will lead to business success and what won’t: place very little confidence in your powers of reasoning. Turn to empirical evidence instead.